Thursday, June 2, 2011

Heat-Mavs Game 2: The Big 3 (things to watch)

     1) Will the Heat bench show up again?  
                  Game 1 showed how far the Heat have come from their 9-8 start. Back in November, Miami could only dream of winning a game in which the Wade-James-Bosh triumvirate shot a combined 23-for-53. However, in addition to smothering defense, Miami now boasts something it didn't have back then: a bench. The playoff emergence of Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem, coupled with the solid defense and dangerous (if not consistent) 3-point shooting of Mario Chalmers have turned Miami's bench from a laughingstock into a viable threat. However, the effectiveness of all 3 has been spotty for a multitude of reasons (Chalmers' career has been marked by up-and-down performances, Haslem is not in "basketball shape", and Miller has more injuries than tattoos). If this trio can provide the timely shooting and defense that it did in Game 1, Miami has to like their chances tonight.

     2) Will the Mavs bench fail to show up again?
                  Dallas' biggest advantage coming into this series was presumed to be their depth. However, their bench, led by perennial 6th Man of the Year candidate Jason Terry, shot just 4-for-22 in Game 1. Terry, Stojakovic, and Barea shoot the ball too well to duplicate such a performance, but the Mavs need excellence from the trio if they want to make this a competitive series. Stojakovic looked old in Game 1, and Terry struggled to find open looks after the Heat sent LeBron James to guard him. Look for Kidd and Barea to try to penetrate into the heart of Miami's defense in order to kick out to Terry and Stojakovic (and Deshawn Stevenson, I guess, even though he showed how seriously he was taking this series by drinking at Prime 112 last night) for open looks. If Dallas' shooters can't knock down these looks, this series won't go any deeper than 5 games.

     3) How will Erik Spoelstra deal with the ineffectiveness of Mike Bibby?
                 There's no getting around it: Bibby has been awful this postseason. Miami signed the aging point-guard expecting the lethal perimeter shooting that Bibby had displayed over his 12-year career. However, Bibby's shooting percentage, which was 43.7% in the 22 regular season games he played with the Heat, has drastically fallen to just 25% in the playoffs, including 12-for-53 from 3-point territory. Teams are beginning to simply leave Bibby unattended, essentially forcing Miami to play 4-on-5 at the beginning of games and to start the 2nd half. Coach Erik Spoelstra's options are limited, though. Other than Mario Chalmers, who is already logging around 30 minutes/game, Spoelstra's only other backcourt option is Eddie House, who has barely seen any action at all this postseason. Because Spoelstra likes the change-of-pace that Chalmers provides off the bench, any Bibby benching would have to be accompanied by either a) starting a seldom-used House, or b) using some sort of gimmick-lineup in which James and Wade share the ballhandling duties with a banged-up Mike Miller entering the starting lineup. Neither of these options are ideal. In all likelihood, Spoelstra will continue to start Bibby in the hopes that he finds his once-potent outside shot. However, if that shot continues to misfire, the Heat may not be able to keep overcoming their shortcomings at the point guard position.

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